I Just Found the Real Reason Behind Trump’s Tariffs—And How to Profit from It
I Just Found the Real Reason Behind Trump’s Tariffs—And How to Profit from It
Most people think Trump’s tariffs are reckless. Some think they’re genius. But what if the truth lies somewhere in between—calculated chaos, driven by a blueprint most people haven’t read?
Back in November 2024, an overlooked economic paper may have revealed everything we needed to know about Trump’s strategy—months before he doubled down on tariffs.
The author?
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Steven Moran, a former investment strategist who was later nominated by Trump to lead the Council for Economic Advisers.
His paper? Titled "A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." And while he insists it wasn’t a step-by-step guide, markets are treating it like a playbook.
This article unpacks Moran’s ideas, Trump’s real goals, and what it all means for investors right now—especially if you're watching US bonds, inflation, and Bitcoin.
The Penguin Tariffs and the Method Behind the Madness
It started with headlines that felt like satire—Trump slapping tariffs on what looked like irrelevant or absurd trade items. Even his supporters couldn’t explain it. But dig a little deeper and you find a pattern—one that points to a much bigger play.
Moran’s paper warned against starting with high tariffs, but that’s exactly what Trump did.
Why?
Some think it was a strategic shock—designed to spook markets, push bond yields down, and make US debt easier to refinance.
With $9 trillion needing to be rolled over, lower yields aren’t optional. They’re critical.
The problem? It backfired—at least in the short term. Bond yields jumped, not fell. Stocks slipped. Confusion spread.
So was it just a blunder?
Not necessarily. Because even if bond yields didn’t cooperate, something else did: the economy started showing signs of strain. And that, bizarrely, might be the real goal.
Why Economic Weakness Might Be the Point
Here’s where things get twisted. Economic weakness could actually help Trump’s trade war. If companies can’t pass tariff costs to consumers—because people simply can’t afford higher prices—those companies eat the cost. Profits fall, but inflation doesn’t spike.
That protects the average American. And it forces the Fed to keep rates steady or even consider cuts—despite the inflation risks. A weaker economy makes it politically harder to raise rates.
What’s more, the biggest US stock indices are built to survive this kind of pressure. The S&P 500 is packed with tech companies that don’t rely heavily on Chinese imports. Tariff exemptions for laptops, phones, and chips mean companies like Apple can skate through while industrials take the hit.
So we end up with a strange picture: consumers protected from inflation, the government shielded from debt crises, and the market mostly stable. All while trade balances slowly shift.
If this sounds like 4D chess, you’re not alone.
Why Manufacturing and Trade Need to Shift—Fast
Let’s go back to Moran’s paper. His key point? The US can’t keep footing the global bill. The reserve currency status means the US has to run deficits, finance global trade, and provide defense across the board.
As global GDP rises, this burden grows. And the sectors that suffer the most? US manufacturing and tradable goods. Tariffs, according to Moran, are one tool to rebalance this dynamic—by encouraging companies to bring production back home.
It’s not just about punishing China. It’s about breaking a decades-long cycle of offshoring and dependency.
Now, you might ask: why not just weaken the dollar?
That’s what the “Mara Lago Accord” theory is all about—a kind of modern-day Plaza Accord, where world leaders meet (at Trump’s Florida club, naturally) to agree on a weaker dollar.
Except, that’s not happening. The US doesn’t have the allies—or the leverage—to make it work. China won’t play ball. And Moran actually says the opposite in his paper: first strengthen the dollar, then negotiate.
Right now, the dollar is weakening. That makes a Mara Lago accord pointless. So tariffs are what’s left.
So Where Does Bitcoin Fit In?
All of this volatility—trade uncertainty, inflation worries, bond chaos—creates a perfect storm for alternative stores of value. And that’s where Bitcoin steps in.
The more dysfunctional the system becomes, the more attractive a neutral, non-sovereign monetary network looks. If Trump’s policies continue to undermine trust in fiat markets or increase inflation volatility, Bitcoin stands to benefit.
More than that, the harder it becomes to manage debt through traditional tools, the more seriously sovereign wealth funds and investors may start allocating to hard assets—including BTC.
Don’t expect an overnight surge. But if Moran’s blueprint is the one being followed, and if the consequences play out like we expect, Bitcoin could quietly gain strength as the pressure builds.
Conclusion
Trump's tariff playbook is confusing on the surface—but it's not random. Whether it’s a deliberate economic shock or just chaos with a silver lining, the consequences are real: reshuffling supply chains, shifting investor priorities, and potentially re-writing the future of the global trade order.
For investors, the opportunity lies in understanding the logic behind the madness—and positioning early before the story changes.
Start by watching three signals:
Bond yields
Inflation surprises
Bitcoin’s strength in a volatile dollar environment
The next few months could get messy. But if you're paying attention, they could also be full of asymmetric bets.
It’s going to take more than one read to absorb all of the data points but it’s worth every read.
Well done! Enjoyed the read! I postulated many months ago this was to make the Fed drop a full point…that’s massive savings when you talk trillions. Most of us won’t see meaningful change without our finances, but the rich will and the government.
I do believe a wealth rebalance is required because the 90 plus percent of us are fighting over 10 percent of the available wealth. Having it even across the board is utopia and unsustainable since you have people who are lazy, people who are disadvantaged, and so forth. The goal is to have more availability. Why does one need 10 Billion? Or 1 Billion for that matter? All the rules protecting wealth passing down needs to be reconfigured. So much to talk about…thanks for sharing!