Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Really Back? - or Just Another Trap?
Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Really Back? - or Just Another Trap?
Bitcoin's had a messy year so far.
It shot past $109K, then tumbled to $76K, and now it's crawling its way back toward $98K. That kind of bounce gets everyone asking: Is this the start of the next bull run? Or just another setup for disappointment?
Honestly, that question’s not as simple as a chart breakout or a Twitter poll. There's way more going on beneath the surface.
This isn’t about guessing tops or bottoms. It's about reading behavior. Who's buying, who’s selling, and who’s sitting tight. It’s about understanding pressure points in the system—liquidity, positioning, and macro trends that most people overlook.
In this longer breakdown, we’re going beyond the headlines. We’ll look at:
What the whales are really doing
Whether the ETF wave still has juice
What macro is signaling under the surface
Why the bears might still be right
This won’t be a fluff piece with vague predictions. You’re going to get data, behavior patterns, and hard truths. Let’s dive deep, starting with what’s keeping the bulls confident.
The Bullish Case: Whales, Scarcity, and Macro Tailwinds
1. Whales Are Accumulating Like It’s 2020 Again
The biggest Bitcoin wallets—particularly those holding over 10,000 BTC—have been aggressively accumulating again, and it's starting to look a lot like the strategic accumulation phase we saw in 2020, right before the 2021 bull run took off.
We’re not talking about random whales chasing momentum. These are usually long-term focused entities: think crypto-native funds, sovereign wealth managers, high-net-worth syndicates, and deep-pocketed family offices.
These players don’t fomo into green candles. They operate with a completely different lens: long-term conviction, early access to macroeconomic trends, and the patience to accumulate through fear.
Glassnode data shows that since March, not only has the number of whale wallets increased, but their behavior has shifted.
They’re not selling rallies. They’re buying dips and transferring funds into long-term holding wallets. That’s key. Over 300,000 BTC flowed into long-term wallets in just a single month.
Even more impressive? Supply held by long-term holders (6 months or more) is at all-time highs. That means these coins aren’t moving—they’re being stored away for later, possibly with no intention to touch them until the next market cycle top.
It’s quiet. It’s patient. And it’s happening at scale.
2. Supply Shock Is Brewing: Exchange Balances Are Collapsing
We're witnessing a slow-motion squeeze on the available supply of Bitcoin for trading.
Today, less than 11% of all Bitcoin is sitting on centralized exchanges. That’s the lowest it's been since early 2018. And if you remember what happened after that? A massive multi-month rally.
But this time, it's even more skewed. The supply leaving exchanges isn’t just retail moving to cold storage. Here’s what we’re seeing:
Binance lost over 28,000 BTC in one week.
Coinbase’s institutional custody balances are hitting new highs.
OTC desk reserves (often used by whales and institutions) are down 40% year-over-year.
That tells us something important: this isn’t speculative hot money moving around. These are large, deliberate buys followed by deep storage. It’s the kind of behavior that front-runs long-term appreciation.
If you combine falling exchange supply with rising institutional demand, you get a simple but powerful setup: less Bitcoin is available to buy, and more people want to buy it.
That’s a recipe for price pressure.
3. ETF Demand Isn’t Slowing Down — It’s Picking Up Steam
Most analysts expected Bitcoin ETF inflows to drop off after the initial euphoria. That hasn’t happened. In fact, the opposite is true.
In the last week of April alone, over $3.1 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs. That’s not noise. That’s persistent, institutional-scale capital.
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now holds more Bitcoin than MicroStrategy—the company known for being one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders.
What makes ETF flows so bullish is the structure of the demand:
These aren’t short-term speculators. They’re pensions, wealth managers, insurance funds.
Their purchases happen slowly, in programmed tranches.
Every new client approval brings fresh inflows.
So as more financial advisors become comfortable allocating even 1-2% of portfolios into BTC, this demand is likely to continue building month after month. There’s no rush. But there’s no turning back either.
The supply is finite. The pipes are now open.
4. Short Interest Is Mounting — and That’s Bullish
When too many people bet against Bitcoin, they often become fuel for the next leg up.
That’s what we’re starting to see now. Funding rates across top derivatives platforms like Binance, Bybit, and OKX turned negative right as Bitcoin hovered around $92,000. That means traders were so eager to short BTC that they were willing to pay to keep those positions open.
This kind of crowding often ends the same way:
Shorts get liquidated as price pushes up.
Liquidations force short-sellers to buy BTC to close their positions.
That buying pushes prices higher, triggering even more liquidations.
This domino effect is called a short squeeze.
It’s exactly what drove big upside bursts in October 2023 and February 2024. The setup is forming again.
5. The SEC Might Be Softening Its Stance
Regulatory fear has been a shadow over crypto for years. But that cloud might finally be lifting.
The appointment of Paul Atkins as SEC Chair is turning heads across the industry. He’s already floated three potentially transformative ideas:
A 3-year grace window for new crypto projects.
Simplified rules for small-cap token startups.
A clear, streamlined path for stablecoin regulation under the Genius Act.
If even half of this goes through, it signals a shift in tone—from enforcement-first to innovation-friendly. That could:
Unlock fresh capital waiting on regulatory clarity.
Bring US-based builders back home.
Reinforce Bitcoin’s positioning as a secure, compliant asset.
This isn’t just bullish for tokens. It’s bullish for sentiment. It makes Bitcoin look even more like the safe anchor in a shifting market.
6. Macro Liquidity Is Coming Back Online
Let’s zoom out.
Global M2 money supply (a broad measure of cash and near-cash) is rising again. That usually means more liquidity entering financial systems. Historically, Bitcoin has followed M2 with over 90% correlation.
Why? Because Bitcoin thrives on liquidity. When cash is cheap and abundant, investors get risk-on. They look for asymmetric upside. Bitcoin is often the first place they look.
More signals:
Central banks in China, Japan, and Europe are quietly restarting stimulus.
The US Federal Reserve has paused hikes and started hinting at cuts.
The DXY (Dollar Index) just formed a death cross, a pattern that’s historically led to major BTC rallies.
Every time the dollar weakens, it makes Bitcoin look stronger. Every time liquidity expands, Bitcoin becomes a magnet.
7. On-Chain Indicators Say We’re Not at the Top Yet
Despite the price moves, most on-chain metrics suggest we’re still mid-cycle.
The CBBI Index—which blends 9 on-chain and market cycle models—sits at 72. Historically, tops come when it crosses 90.
Other key indicators:
MVRV Z-score: Still far from the red zone, indicating fair value.
Pi Cycle Top: No crossover yet, usually a strong cycle top signal.
SOPR: Still in a healthy range, suggesting coins are moving at a profit but not extreme levels.
Translation: We’re climbing, but we’re not in euphoria. There’s still upside to chase.
The Bearish Case: Hidden Selling, Macro Headwinds, and Lack of Spark
1. New Money Is Being Absorbed — Not Driving Price
Let’s start with one of the most underappreciated signals: Realized Cap. This metric tracks the average price of all coins when they were last moved. In simple terms, it tells us what new entrants are paying for Bitcoin.
Lately, Realized Cap has been rising, which on the surface looks bullish. It means new buyers are coming in. But here’s the issue: despite this new inflow of capital, Bitcoin’s price isn’t pushing higher. That’s a red flag. If demand is increasing, why isn’t price?
The answer lies in distribution. Old hands—those who’ve held BTC for months or years—are offloading into this new demand. The new money isn’t aggressive enough to overpower the selling pressure. So price stalls.
It’s like trying to fill a bucket with a hole in it. Sure, water is going in—but it’s leaking out just as fast.
And this isn’t just theory. On-chain metrics show coins moving from older, dormant wallets to newer ones. Long-term holders are quietly selling into strength. Not in a panic. But steadily, and with precision.
This dynamic usually shows up in late-cycle behavior—or in ranges before major breakdowns.
2. Spot Market Is Weakening — Fast
Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) is one of those metrics that cuts through noise. It shows whether market orders (the most urgent kind) are being dominated by buyers or sellers.
Right now, it’s flipped negative. That means sell orders are outpacing buy orders. Not on paper. Not in predictions. But in actual trade execution.
So while price might look stable, the engine underneath is misfiring. And if we zoom in further, it gets worse: volume is thinning out. Bid-side liquidity is evaporating.
In plain English: people aren’t stepping in to buy dips anymore. They’re letting the market fall.
This is exactly what we saw before previous breakdowns in 2018 and 2022. Thin liquidity, negative CVD, and passive selling. It creates the perfect setup for a flush.
3. Recession Risk Is No Longer Just Talk — It’s Getting Real
The macro backdrop is starting to weigh down heavily.
JPMorgan just updated its recession model, putting the odds at 60%. PolyMarket—where real money is on the line—shows over 57% betting on a 2025 recession. And the economic data is backing them up:
Manufacturing PMIs are tanking across the US and Europe.
Retail sales are flatlining or declining in most major markets.
Credit card delinquencies in the US are spiking to pre-COVID levels.
In this kind of climate, liquidity dries up. Households cut spending. Investors de-risk. That’s not the kind of environment where Bitcoin usually thrives.
And here’s the brutal truth: when recession fears spike, Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset. It doesn’t behave like digital gold in these moments. It bleeds.
4. The Hype Machine Is Silent — And That’s a Problem
Remember the ETF hype?
The halving narrative?
The meme cycles?
The AI + crypto fusion pitches?
They’re gone.
Google search trends for Bitcoin have cratered. NFT volumes are at rock bottom. Even new memecoins can’t hold attention for more than 48 hours.
And perhaps the most telling stat? Venture capital activity in crypto is at its lowest level in over 2 years. When the builders stop building, it’s not just about money—it’s about narrative drought.
There’s no new story pulling in fresh users. No cultural moment. No external hook.
And in crypto, narrative drives adoption. Narrative drives momentum. Without it? Everything slows down.
5. Technicals Are Flashing Yellow — Maybe Red
Bitcoin is struggling to stay above key levels—specifically the mid-$90Ks. And it’s doing so with weakening volume.
Indicators like MACD, RSI, and ADX are all pointing down. That doesn’t guarantee a crash. But it suggests trend exhaustion.
RSI divergence shows momentum fading.
MACD is about to bear cross.
ADX is below 20—signaling no trend strength.
If buyers can’t reclaim momentum soon, we risk falling into a chop zone or worse—a slow bleed.
This kind of technical setup isn’t sexy. It’s not dramatic. But it’s death by a thousand cuts. Slow decay. And historically, that’s what leads to deeper corrections.
So What Should You Actually Do?
Let’s not sugarcoat it: this market is in a tricky phase. Could we break higher? Yes. But the signals are murky. The strength isn’t obvious.
So the best move here isn’t prediction. It’s preparation.
Don’t fomo into green candles.
Don’t assume macro will save you.
Don’t bet on influencers who change their minds daily.
Instead:
Stick with assets you deeply understand.
Set clear exit plans. Mental stops. Hard stops. Doesn’t matter—just have them.
Keep dry powder. Stay patient.
This market punishes speed. But it rewards patience and clarity.
Zoom out. Stay sharp. And above all: don’t lose money trying to look smart.
These aren’t gamblers chasing spikes—they’re architects of the future economy. While retail reacts, these players move silently with conviction, buying fear like it’s discounted gold. They don’t follow macro—they pre-position ahead of it, absorbing risk while the crowd watches shadows. Their edge isn’t speed. It’s clarity, timing, and the kind of patience only power can afford.