They Predicted Bitcoin's Crash Before It Happened!! — Here's What They're Predicting Next
They Predicted Bitcoin's Crash Before It Happened!! — Here's What They're Predicting Next
From the end of January to early April, Bitcoin dropped hard. From a peak of $109,000 to just around $74,000. And altcoins? Absolute bloodbath. Some fell over 90% from their recent highs.
Most people were caught completely off guard. Everyone was riding the "Trump Pump" high, convinced that the so-called pumper-in-chief would drive prices higher.
But not everyone was surprised.
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A few analysts on X actually saw this coming. They warned us. They called it in advance.
That made me stop and ask:
How the hell did they see this coming?
And more importantly: What are they calling next?
So, I dug in. I went through their posts, their charts, their analysis. And in this breakdown, I’ll walk you through exactly what they said then, and what they're predicting now.
1. Dave the Wave — Fractals and Log Curves
Dave's been around for years. He predicted the 2019 top, the 2021 run, and now this.
In February, he posted about BTC likely correcting to the 0.382 Fibonacci level—roughly $81K. But he also highlighted the importance of the 52-week SMA within his Log Growth Curve (LGC) model.
To Dave, BTC moves in repeating long-term structures. His fractal model suggests that Summer 2025 could be the cycle peak—not based on hopium, but historical timing and trend repetition.
He doesn’t give exact prices. But his time window lines up with others calling for $150K-$250K.
2. Joe McCann — Macro Quant with a Trading Edge
Joe McCann’s January call was surgical. He pointed to the 10-month moving average at ~$75K as a magnet level—the same way SPX uses long-term MAs as reversion zones.
His bearish bias came from:
A "shooting star" pattern on the weekly BTC chart
Rising DXY (dollar index)
CME futures gaps below spot
But now, he’s flipped. With ETF inflows stabilizing and volatility compressing, he sees a setup for an expansion leg. His 2024 year-end target is still $150K, delayed but not canceled.
3. Arthur Hayes — The Liquidity Swing Trader
Arthur started bullish in January, then shifted fast. By late Jan, he dropped a blog post predicting a pullback to $70K-$75K.
Why? Because liquidity was tightening and he saw algo-driven liquidations on memecoins as the canary in the coal mine.
His toolset includes:
Treasury issuance pace (more bonds = tighter liquidity)
Central bank asset flows
Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and Nasdaq
He now says if BTC breaks past $110K, it can hit $250K by year-end. His thesis? Once the Fed reverses QT, that flood of capital hits risk assets fast—and BTC leads.
4. CryptoB — Psychology Meets TA
CryptoB’s call was psychological. In December, he predicted not just one, but multiple pullbacks in early 2025, driven by emotional overextension.
His main argument: This was a "buy the rumor, sell the news" market. Trump narratives, ETF hype, and memecoin mania were pushing things too fast.
He specifically predicted 30% corrections, citing:
Bearish RSI divergences
Exhaustion candles on the daily chart
An MVRV Z-score spike that signaled overvaluation
Post-drop, he's now watching on-chain activity and sentiment scores. His thesis is that the rally resumes once retail comes back. He thinks that happens around June-July—and he's eyeing $200K by December.
5. Michael Howell — Liquidity as the Leading Indicator
Michael doesn’t care much for chart patterns. His focus is macro liquidity: how much money is flowing through global financial pipes.
His January warning was based on three things:
A contraction in global central bank liquidity
A strong USD (which tends to pressure BTC)
A slowing gold/BTC ratio, a proxy he uses for risk-on/risk-off sentiment
He didn’t just say "watch out". He gave a tactical zone: $70K-$75K as a prime accumulation range, expecting liquidity to bounce back later in the year.
Now? He thinks BTC hits $250K within 3 years. The trigger: a return to QE and liquidity injections as economies slow and debts pile up.
6. BitQuant — Riding the Wave Theory
BitQuant's playbook is built around Elliott Wave theory. In December, he pointed to a massive impulse wave topping out and a corrective wave brewing beneath it. He called for a drop to $76K, based on this being a Wave 2 retracement before the big Wave 3 push
His thesis is that this cycle isn't just bigger—it's structurally different. With ETFs opening the gates for institutional capital, he thinks every wave is exaggerated: deeper dips, longer rallies.
He saw the 76K level not just as a random floor but as a Fibonacci retracement of Wave 1. Once we hit it, he said, "prepare for the launch pad.”
Next move? He's eyeing $145K by year-end. Not because of hype—but because the third wave in Elliott patterns tends to be the strongest.
Patterns, Not Predictions
The analysts who nailed this crash weren’t throwing darts. They used frameworks—Psychological models, macro cycles, liquidity trends, and Elliott waves.
Most are now calling for all-time highs, some even before year-end. Whether they hit the exact numbers or not, their frameworks are what matter.
Because if you understand the why, you don’t need anyone to tell you what’s next.
Interesting analysis 🤔