Let’s be honest.
This bull market feels... slow.
No fireworks. No 20x altcoin runs. No insane Bitcoin pumps. No "god candles."
It’s boring. Painfully boring. And that might actually be the best sign yet.
Because here’s a thought no one wants to consider:
What if this is the slowest bull market we’ve ever seen... but also the longest?
Everyone's Waiting for the Crash
The world is still bracing for a collapse. Financial Twitter has been screaming “recession” for two years straight. Every dip in bond yields, every housing data miss, every earnings report that’s 1% below expectations gets twisted into a doomsday headline.
We’ve had rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, bank failures, and even a full-blown regional banking crisis in the U.S. last year.
And yet...
US GDP is projected to hit 4.6% for Q2.
The S&P 500 just had its best May in 35 years.
Recession odds just dropped from 70% to 31% in a single month.
That’s not how recessions behave.
So what do you trust—headlines or hard data?
This divergence between doom narratives and actual economic strength is exactly what makes bull markets grind higher.
It’s called “climbing the wall of worry.” And this one’s been doing pull-ups on that wall.
Let This Sink In
Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, recently dropped a reminder that’s been echoing in my head:
This bull market is less than half the length of the average bull market since World War II.
Let that marinate.
Historical data from Carson Group shows that bull markets typically last 67 months on average, with a median of 60 months.
We're only about 30 months in.
That means, statistically, we’re barely halfway through.
And what started this bull run? Early 2023. That was while interest rates were still climbing, inflation was supposedly “out of control,” and half of the market was calling for a Great Depression 2.0.
Fast forward to now:
Rates have stabilized.
Inflation is cooling.
The U.S. economy is outperforming, not crashing.
If this follows the historical script, we could see this bull market stretch into 2026 or even 2027.
The Crypto Market Is Quietly Aligning With Stocks
For the first time in its history, crypto isn’t the wild child throwing off fireworks independently of legacy markets.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, even Solana—they’re slowly syncing up with equities.
And there’s one main reason:
Institutions.
This isn’t a retail-driven rally like 2017 or 2021.
This time, Wall Street is at the wheel.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $5.77 billion in inflows in May.
That’s more than gold ETFs brought in over the same period.
BlackRock, Fidelity, Ark, Franklin Templeton—all playing now.
Corporate treasuries are stacking sats, making public announcements about billion-dollar purchases.
Hedge funds are allocating. Family offices are getting exposure. Asset managers are studying on-chain data.
This is what a maturing market looks like.
And when institutions enter, things don’t move like they used to.
They accumulate slowly, strategically. They don’t chase green candles. They buy in ways that don’t shock the price.
Retail hasn’t even woken up yet.
That’s why it feels boring.
And that’s why it’s powerful.
Where's the Altcoin Season?
Short answer? It hasn’t started.
Longer answer? This is the longest delay in alt season we've seen.
Altcoin holders are exhausted.
Bags are heavy.
Prices are choppy.
Emotions are frayed.
We get a green week? We shout “we’re back.”
Red week? “It’s over.”
Repeat.
This is emotional whiplash, and it's burning people out.
But here’s the pattern:
Bitcoin always moves first.
Altcoins always lag.
And historically, the real altcoin mania doesn’t begin until Bitcoin breaks well past its all-time high and enters price discovery mode.
We’re not there yet.
Bitcoin's Macro Structure Is Still Intact
Bitcoin’s long-term Fibonacci Bollinger Band strategy gives us a big clue.
In every full cycle, Bitcoin has blown past the top band during its parabolic move.
That hasn’t happened yet.
In fact, the top line of the band currently sits at $128,000.
That means:
We haven’t even entered the final mania phase.
This market isn’t topping—it’s still warming up.
Bitcoin’s holding up better during equity sell-offs.
It’s tracking the global money supply closely.
It’s acting like an asset with a seat at the institutional table.
This isn’t random noise. This is structure.
The Pain Trade Is Sideways
Everyone’s either:
Calling the top and waiting for a crash.
Waiting for the next altcoin supercycle.
Sitting on the sidelines until “things get exciting again.”
But here’s the truth:
The pain trade is sideways.
It grinds. It wears people out.
It makes you doubt your thesis.
And then, one day, things snap into motion. And everyone’s late.
That’s how bull markets trap you—not by crashing, but by leaving you behind.
A Different Kind of Cycle
This might not be just a longer cycle.
It might be a different kind of cycle altogether.
A mature, ETF-fueled, Wall Street-aligned, regulation-backed bull run.
Think longer growth periods.
Think shallower corrections.
Think more like the stock market.
Why?
Wall Street capital moves slower.
Institutions want reduced volatility.
They build exposure across multi-year timeframes.
That’s where we are now.
And if that’s the case?
You’re not late.
You’re early to the next phase of this asset class
The Real Estate Cycle and Crypto’s Big Test
Here's the kicker.
We’re entering the final, most speculative part of the 18-year real estate cycle—the Winner’s Curse.
It’s the part where markets surge past all fundamentals. Asset prices disconnect from reality. Narratives run wild.
We’ve seen it before:
Dotcom mania in 2000
Housing blow-off in 2006–07
Everything bubble in 2020–21
But this is Bitcoin’s first time riding this part of the cycle with full institutional participation.
And it just might explode.
Don’t Sleep On This
The altcoin season will come.
Bitcoin’s parabolic move will come.
The blow-off top will come.
It always does.
And when it happens, it will feel sudden.
It’ll feel late.
But it won’t be.
The signs are already here.
They’re just... boring.
And that’s why they’re getting missed.
Your Edge Is Patience
Survive the chop.
DCA smart.
Cut noise.
Stick to signals.
And get ready.
Because when this market moves, it’ll leave most people behind.
That doesn’t have to be you.
Stay ready.
Stay convicted.
And let everyone else sleep on the longest bull market of their lives.
I'm reading this with the lens of "Am I ever going to be able to afford a house again..." from what I'm reading here the answer is still no.
Hi Abhaya,
Really enjoyed your latest crypto thesis — especially the way you tie macro trends to digital opportunity.
I recently launched The Sunday Report as a softer entry point into a broader platform where I explore how digital wealth and global capital flows are converging — particularly in the Southern Cone of South America.
Beyond lifestyle, I’m diving into serious opportunities in international trade, real assets, and long-view investing in Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina. I think some of your readers might resonate with how this complements the crypto cycle — especially when it’s time to convert gains into tangible, strategic positions.
If you’re open to it, I’d love to connect and explore a collab or cross-intro.
Cheers,
Eric
https://greenefinancialadvisory.substack.com